Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81f7087013841694f3d7cfe9cfe4ffe669a2e947d4e4a63f647c70f8b61450d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0514…f8c6backed Yes | 0c | 28,091$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.45 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed Yes | 27c | 921.78$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.71 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 622.06$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 520.67$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 6c | 504.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 5c | 463.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 20c | 360.35$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.37 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 5c | 302.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 286.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 76c | 256$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68f4…4647backed Yes | 6c | 249.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 55c | 240.45$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.02 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 208.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 59c | 196.11$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 193$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 27c | 186.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 62c | 172.45$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.29 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 62c | 171.68$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 34c | 137.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Yes | 25c | 135.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 130$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 72c | 121.96$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 120$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 56c | 119.28$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 19c | 118.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 15c | 108$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 21c | 104.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 69c | 93.37$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.47 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 13c | 90.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 24c | 88.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 85.27$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 81.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked No | 78c | 77.23$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 63.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 63.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 60c | 63.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 19c | 56.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 70c | 56.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 48.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 48.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…3b47backed Yes | 31c | 48.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 76c | 42.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…8cebbacked Yes | 69c | 40.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 26c | 39.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd31a…5f51backed Yes | 26c | 39.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 38.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 74c | 37.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 34.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…d2acbacked No | 72c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 73c | 33.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 64c | 32.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 30.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 79c | 28.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 72c | 28.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 58c | 27.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed No | 42c | 26.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 53c | 22.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 65c | 21.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 21.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 75c | 21.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 57c | 20.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 73c | 19.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 79c | 18.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 74c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.