MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0f0426b9e47152e5fc54b65e48e303ff76e8f39467f0214cf7a0d39f7fd87d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Baltimore Orioles, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 6,212$3,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,343.48 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 5,866$2,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,228.36 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Minnesota Twins | 61c | 3,063$1,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,194.38 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 3,028$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.32 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 1,604$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.5 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 1,051$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.8 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 768.65$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 518.21$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 485.35$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.21 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 406.23$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.24 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aed…7896backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 333.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.66 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 298.18$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.29 | 1,402 | 48.8%684 W · 718 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Minnesota Twins | 48c | 294.53$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.57 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…cfe5backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ce…0a8ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 180$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 160.03$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.81 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Baltimore Orioles | 23c | 146.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 140.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 117.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…edfdbacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 108.55$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed Baltimore Orioles | 28c | 99.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8742…5e43backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 85.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…4648backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 79.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…a64abacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 79.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 323 | 50.5%163 W · 160 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a0…f673backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 73.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 69.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 62.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 62.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 60.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 280 | 49.6%139 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 228 | 51.3%117 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Minnesota Twins | 40c | 51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 49.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 1,299 | 50.9%661 W · 638 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 41.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Minnesota Twins | 79c | 41.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Minnesota Twins | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 39.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 612 | 50.5%309 W · 303 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0654…f5a9backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 31.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x787a…9199backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 31.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc47a…68e6backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 30.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 29.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 767 | 52.3%401 W · 366 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…5fa2backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Minnesota Twins | 60c | 26.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…9898backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 21.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Minnesota Twins | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb7…2c57backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 17.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Minnesota Twins | 72c | 16.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- NRFI: Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.