TailMyPicks
Market

MLB · resolved market

Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$161,897
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$162,451

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,897 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Over50c59,017$29,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,220.381,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Under50c50,000$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,00041149.1%202 W · 209 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked Under51c31,739$16,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,552.2212247.5%58 W · 64 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over49c22,848$11,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,191.4647447.3%224 W · 250 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under50c19,216$9,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,672.1365050.3%327 W · 323 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Over50c15,000$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,5002437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Under51c15,000$7,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,40047953.2%255 W · 224 L+18.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Under50c12,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,00015148.3%73 W · 78 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over50c9,725$4,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,862.4532348.9%158 W · 165 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Over50c7,878$3,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9393554.3%19 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Over50c6,196$3,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,091.137839.7%31 W · 47 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under64c3,377$2,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.8712,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Over50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50016947.9%81 W · 88 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Under51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47062447.6%297 W · 327 L-2.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over51c2,884$1,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.421,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Over48c2,111$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.231,35850.8%690 W · 668 L+13.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbbd…d6f0backed Under51c2,108$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.844047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under50c1,488$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.165,47150.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L+21.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under50c1,400$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.896,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9541…3b71backed Under50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Over51c1,176$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60059549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5318…1118backed Over49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006752.2%35 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over50c935.06$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.531,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Under50c794.75$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.38862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+20%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Over50c750$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3751136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under51c658.31$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.76,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Over51c647.07$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.4215847.5%75 W · 83 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa070…1af3backed Over51c602$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.022653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under56c584.61$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.731,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked Over50c562$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28128647.2%135 W · 151 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over49c504.99$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.4550751.7%262 W · 245 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Over48c499.99$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2409655.2%53 W · 43 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over47c499.99$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2354156.1%23 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Over23c446.91$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.0512339%48 W · 75 L+0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Over26c401.07$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9554815.9%87 W · 461 L-41.1wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-44.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4923…6866backed Under51c399.98$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.992147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7963…78a1backed Under51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.162733.3%9 W · 18 L-5.8wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-37.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb007…21f2backed Under59c372.88$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.88475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+66.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x004e…c650backed Over49c346.92$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.996048.3%29 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf05d…ac5ebacked Over50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507048.6%34 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed Under49c299.98$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.9911647.4%55 W · 61 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Under50c298.13$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.137339.7%29 W · 44 L-6.8wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Over51c295.31$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.530150.8%153 W · 148 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60c…d2e2backed Over50c283$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.517151.5%88 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a8f…5259backed Over50c282$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14112257.4%70 W · 52 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under49c278.72$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.029,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d63…0b78backed Over50c274.09$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.672532%8 W · 17 L-5.2wins-0.21per pick53cpaid-46.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xef86…5afcbacked Over51c251$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.0111953.8%64 W · 55 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Under51c235.29$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.2944348.5%215 W · 228 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb996…038cbacked Over51c202$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.025846.6%27 W · 31 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013742.3%58 W · 79 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3d8…c0f2backed Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006857.4%39 W · 29 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007146.5%33 W · 38 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdae4…f1fcbacked Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x523e…3128backed Under52c199.99$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.012657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024348.1%117 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e4a…fcd8backed Over51c193.33$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.67950.6%40 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf89f…32b0backed Over52c193.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002227.3%6 W · 16 L-6.2wins-0.28per pick55cpaid-48.6%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Under52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3112655.6%70 W · 56 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Under52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3110056%56 W · 44 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Under51c191.78$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.972965.5%19 W · 10 L+4.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+35.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x09d3…3128backed Under51c191.76$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.961643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ba9…4fa1backed Over50c178.2$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.19250%46 W · 46 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d24…9c89backed Over50c171$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.515257.2%87 W · 65 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over17c166.24$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.91,92817.2%331 W · 1,597 L-320.9wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x068c…582ebacked Under52c157.69$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6938455.2%212 W · 172 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under53c149.98$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.074,08757.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L+66.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Over18c148.03$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.033929.4%37 W · 355 L+1.5wins0.00per pick9cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9510…16dfbacked Over50c147.05$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.531338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88a0…f673backed Over50c143$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.55050%25 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec38…ca10backed Over49c142.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0614347.6%68 W · 75 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over40c136.12$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.115550.3%78 W · 77 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Over50c133.2$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.610539%41 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb81f…2fd6backed Over51c128$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.281353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08a1…10dcbacked Over50c120$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6021851.4%112 W · 106 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a67…ef6bbacked Over51c119$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.69520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Over50c112.5$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2513441%55 W · 79 L-12.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under51c107.97$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2330750.2%154 W · 153 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Under52c107.71$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.351,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over49c105$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.451,44550%723 W · 722 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb4…8830backed Over20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3565…0b17backed Under50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5022450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Over49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Under50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5072247.6%344 W · 378 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10fb…29bfbacked Under51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03eb…47b0backed Over51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-21.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f04…6a54backed Over33c90$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.72416.7%4 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-64.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1f16…b5b9backed Over51c88.23$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Under52c86.54$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5439653.5%212 W · 184 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa415…6fb9backed Over50c85$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2477052.1%401 W · 369 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Over51c83.4$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.533644.4%16 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40d2…312fbacked Under51c82$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1822851.3%117 W · 111 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc58a…b8f8backed Under50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4013549.6%67 W · 68 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Under65c78.01$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.445354.7%29 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Over51c78$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.781,30650.7%662 W · 644 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x669d…3a77backed Over50c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9094…dcabbacked Over50c69.36$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.68520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-40.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Over51c68.18$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.774346.5%20 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under49c67.11$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.231,30150.2%653 W · 648 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc308…c3b9backed Over50c67.06$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.531533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.