Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf101164ce159fea0f71c7724139fefa8bcf2c080ffad8d43ecfecc97483c86be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 1,480$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.52 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 70c | 1,004$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.69 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 34c | 917.83$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.24 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 48c | 771.8$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 576.5$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.04 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 571$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 503.32$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…bc1cbacked Yes | 42c | 356.86$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.66 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 354.48$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.47 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 31c | 346.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.26 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 39c | 310.8$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.59 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 36c | 277.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.07 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 59c | 265.39$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.43 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 245$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 39c | 244.84$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.73 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 12c | 236.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 65c | 200$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 31c | 200$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 51c | 195.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 193.84$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.4 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 183$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.24 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 28c | 160$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 66c | 153.91$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 150.9$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 70c | 142.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 141.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 70c | 137.6$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 59c | 124$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 118.7$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 47c | 117.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 111.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 101.54$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 30c | 91.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 73c | 85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 79.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 43c | 69.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 41c | 62.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87f…864dbacked Yes | 34c | 62.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 58.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 37c | 58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 57.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 50c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 44c | 50.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 62c | 44.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 63c | 44.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 44.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 41c | 44.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed Yes | 49c | 40.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 37c | 37.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 36.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 53c | 36.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 61c | 36.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 35c | 35.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 63c | 28.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 48c | 28.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 63c | 27.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 50c | 25.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 63c | 25.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 48c | 25.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 24.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d0…9e44backed Yes | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 67c | 22.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 49c | 21.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 59c | 20.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…4a59backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 62c | 17.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 77°F or below on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.