Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe2829e865feb4a6b7f6e5a022c3010a5702f6ca7c51ce0a3e4b2edad5cbed46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 1,493$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 36c | 1,264$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed Yes | 45c | 1,000$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.01 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 42c | 755.13$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.96 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 59c | 702.34$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.14 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a7…2133backed No | 3c | 599.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 576.5$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.48 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 560$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.51 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 437.49$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 56c | 422$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.32 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 389.1$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.57 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 358.92$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.14 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 339.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 28c | 307.47$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.22 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 290.16$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 281.74$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.73 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 55c | 266.8$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.86 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 22c | 260.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…bc1cbacked Yes | 52c | 236.28$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.61 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2f…07d3backed No | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 172.52$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.38 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 56c | 161.18$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.18 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 155.13$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.78 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 146.79$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.9 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 54c | 137.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.98 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 130.4$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 56c | 130$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 52c | 125.93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 125.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 118.7$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 49c | 112.06$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.06 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 58c | 111$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 109.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed No | 44c | 99.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 18c | 91.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 48c | 80.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23d…f180backed Yes | 74c | 72.86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 65c | 71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 63c | 69.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 69.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 44c | 68.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 62.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa769…843ebacked Yes | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 36c | 58.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 71c | 49.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 51c | 48.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 77c | 47.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 55c | 44.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 27c | 44.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed Yes | 66c | 43.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 53c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 50c | 37.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 58c | 36.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb67…970abacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 70c | 35.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 70c | 35.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 70c | 34.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 45c | 34.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 75c | 33.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 56c | 31.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 50c | 31.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…f420backed No | 48c | 30.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 37c | 27.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 67c | 27.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62c8…08d4backed Yes | 54c | 24.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 72c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 57c | 23.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 69c | 22.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed No | 70c | 21.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 61c | 20.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 77°F or below on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.