Mls · resolved market
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2025 MLS Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf110b826eaa6bbf6a1c80e4800f43d97cae86d3bed666c9f94cf792fc0299754
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a54…895ebacked Yes | 45c | 1,126$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…8091backed Yes | 31c | 713.72$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 19c | 611.27$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.99 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…811cbacked Yes | 33c | 607.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 5c | 290.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 64c | 245.73$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.56 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdab…cb26backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes | 27c | 197$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 29c | 172.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…7ad5backed No | 67c | 170$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef8…fae5backed Yes | 35c | 142.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed No | 63c | 125.91$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 121.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0487…d452backed Yes | 18c | 93.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x918f…cbf4backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 78c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…d1f6backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…b60fbacked Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked No | 63c | 61.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…5937backed Yes | 35c | 57.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 66c | 57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 73c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…60b9backed Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa795…8008backed Yes | 38c | 38.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 68c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2025 MLS Cup?this page
- Will Austin FC win the 2025 MLS Cup?No won
- Will Charlotte FC win the 2025 MLS Cup?No won
- Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2025 MLS Cup?No won
- Will FC Cincinnati win the 2025 MLS Cup?No won
- Will Inter Miami CF win the 2025 MLS Cup?Yes won
- Will Los Angeles FC win the 2025 MLS Cup?No won
- Will Minnesota United FC win the 2025 MLS Cup?No won
- Will Nashville SC win the 2025 MLS Cup?No won
- Will Orlando City SC win the 2025 MLS Cup?No won
- Will Philadelphia Union win the 2025 MLS Cup?No won
- Will Portland Timbers win the 2025 MLS Cup?No won
- Will Real Salt Lake win the 2025 MLS Cup?No won
- Will San Diego FC win the 2025 MLS Cup?No won
- Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2025 MLS Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.