Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Valinor vs NoLogoJustMMR (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf12679cf45eb37a03b5a491796c19b38478f2c4b7fd8f1eb4c32fa84d3e9d9c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NoLogoJustMMRof Valinor, NoLogoJustMMR
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb276…b331backed Valinor | 1c | 1,375$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…d84fbacked NoLogoJustMMR | 44c | 860.98$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.92 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked NoLogoJustMMR | 45c | 529.78$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.14 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…045fbacked Valinor | 53c | 524.53$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Valinor | 68c | 369.79$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Valinor | 58c | 305$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.9 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa993…1c15backed Valinor | 57c | 280.41$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked NoLogoJustMMR | 34c | 259.27$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.17 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3661…e41bbacked Valinor | 78c | 257.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…ab2cbacked Valinor | 75c | 202.64$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…caa2backed NoLogoJustMMR | 39c | 199.95$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.97 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed NoLogoJustMMR | 46c | 172.06$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.05 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Valinor | 18c | 162.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Valinor | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Valinor | 47c | 149.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed NoLogoJustMMR | 78c | 141.83$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked NoLogoJustMMR | 53c | 131.65$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6438…255bbacked NoLogoJustMMR | 76c | 130.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked NoLogoJustMMR | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed Valinor | 57c | 124.06$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.71 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Valinor | 23c | 123.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed NoLogoJustMMR | 47c | 102.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e14…8d33backed NoLogoJustMMR | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a2…7e3ebacked Valinor | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8f…386cbacked NoLogoJustMMR | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed NoLogoJustMMR | 51c | 78.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed NoLogoJustMMR | 32c | 73.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c40…7c34backed NoLogoJustMMR | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Valinor | 23c | 59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed NoLogoJustMMR | 37c | 55.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed NoLogoJustMMR | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d30…1a5ebacked Valinor | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Valinor | 56c | 45.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3174…b136backed Valinor | 59c | 45.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf111…3b8ebacked NoLogoJustMMR | 37c | 43.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4892…27bcbacked Valinor | 67c | 43.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Valinor | 61c | 42.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e0…4b62backed Valinor | 59c | 34.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41cd…a24abacked Valinor | 61c | 33.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed NoLogoJustMMR | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00db…4be2backed Valinor | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -59%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Valinor | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…ff95backed Valinor | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccc…9918backed NoLogoJustMMR | 66c | 26.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0407…da99backed Valinor | 76c | 26.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf70e…571ebacked Valinor | 46c | 22.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…8b79backed Valinor | 77c | 20.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…32bebacked Valinor | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -11.8wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Valinor | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Valinor vs NoLogoJustMMR (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Valinor vs NoLogoJustMMR - Game 1 WinnerValinor won
- Dota 2: Valinor vs NoLogoJustMMR - Game 2 WinnerNoLogoJustMMR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.