NHL · resolved market
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf19de72790b459eb121ccd272ba08ff153f1964a3b65fcccfe8cf880babd8dd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Capitals, Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,665 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Capitals | 41c | 3,098$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,827.82 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Flames | 59c | 2,630$1,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,551.68 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Capitals | 41c | 2,439$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.02 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Flames | 59c | 2,417$1,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,426.02 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Flames | 59c | 1,500$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Capitals | 40c | 1,178$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.3 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Flames | 59c | 1,008$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.85 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…6947backed Capitals | 41c | 849$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Flames | 59c | 822.72$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.4 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Flames | 43c | 543.82$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.75 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Flames | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd660…dd8bbacked Capitals | 41c | 418.37$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Capitals | 41c | 414$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.26 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Flames | 37c | 402.52$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.32 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Capitals | 55c | 388.96$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.62 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Capitals | 40c | 366.92$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.15 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Capitals | 41c | 346$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.14 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Flames | 60c | 308$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.8 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Flames | 75c | 263.47$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.29 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Flames | 48c | 261.07$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.03 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…9ae9backed Flames | 60c | 258.87$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.32 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Capitals | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Capitals | 53c | 201$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.66 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Capitals | 41c | 173$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.07 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f96…123cbacked Flames | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Capitals | 62c | 157.39$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Capitals | 72c | 157.1$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Capitals | 66c | 139.03$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Capitals | 30c | 123$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Capitals | 57c | 102$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Capitals | 40c | 101.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.07 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Flames | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Capitals | 40c | 87.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Capitals | 41c | 86.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Capitals | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x460d…9d5fbacked Capitals | 68c | 64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Flames | 59c | 49.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…8b04backed Capitals | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Capitals | 62c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +35%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Capitals | 62c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Capitals | 40c | 48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Flames | 48c | 45.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…bfc1backed Flames | 60c | 43.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Capitals | 68c | 40.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…f10abacked Flames | 60c | 38.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Capitals | 61c | 37.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Capitals | 41c | 37.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Capitals | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb3…b7febacked Capitals | 42c | 35.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Capitals | 77c | 32.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Flames | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 272 | 43.4%118 W · 154 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Flames | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc2…8c9abacked Flames | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)this page
- Flames vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Flames vs. Capitals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flames vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Flames vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Flames vs. Capitals: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.