MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf19e1c973626c16b796b48a0013981452395e15e5d760049e9f5449ea8566968
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,058 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Chicago White Sox | 50c | 2,017$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -17.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Seattle Mariners | 53c | 834.94$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.65 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 51c | 780.11$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.77 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Seattle Mariners | 49c | 777$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.35 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Chicago White Sox | 43c | 596.39$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.45 | 3,303 | 46.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Seattle Mariners | 54c | 500.08$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.59 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Chicago White Sox | 45c | 436.64$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.47 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Seattle Mariners | 55c | 423$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.14 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Chicago White Sox | 47c | 360.98$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.63 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Mariners | 70c | 224.56$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.69 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Chicago White Sox | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Chicago White Sox | 45c | 196$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.13 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Chicago White Sox | 45c | 178$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Seattle Mariners | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Seattle Mariners | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Chicago White Sox | 47c | 170.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…f7dfbacked Seattle Mariners | 60c | 167$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Seattle Mariners | 55c | 160.19$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.09 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Chicago White Sox | 45c | 160.19$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.09 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…4523backed Seattle Mariners | 54c | 146.38$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Seattle Mariners | 54c | 113$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Seattle Mariners | 58c | 107$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Chicago White Sox | 47c | 106.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Chicago White Sox | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6a…c76abacked Chicago White Sox | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f2…692ebacked Seattle Mariners | 60c | 83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3212…9541backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Seattle Mariners | 53c | 76.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…595cbacked Chicago White Sox | 48c | 68.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Chicago White Sox | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…9ce7backed Chicago White Sox | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Chicago White Sox | 33c | 43.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Chicago White Sox | 27c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…4dd4backed Seattle Mariners | 53c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Chicago White Sox | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Chicago White Sox | 46c | 39.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2e…d2abbacked Seattle Mariners | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Chicago White Sox | 34c | 36.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 548 | 15.9%87 W · 461 L | -41.1wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…3773backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 35.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 34.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Chicago White Sox | 51c | 30.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Chicago White Sox | 40c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Seattle Mariners | 72c | 23.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Seattle Mariners | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Chicago White Sox | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd31a…e653backed Seattle Mariners | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.