Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1ab28d0b062013a53c7d033c7193f543e90875432c1358d6f43bda58e814096
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x378a…a773backed Yes | 0c | 9,205$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 10c | 5,402$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.94 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,759$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 1c | 1,530$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 1,190$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 10c | 976.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc25e…5d00backed Yes | 2c | 936.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 8c | 889.09$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 11c | 818.56$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.98 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 773.12$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.98 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6e…a704backed Yes | 51c | 687.73$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde16…033bbacked No | 71c | 684.24$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.77 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 36c | 630.51$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.13 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 6c | 613.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 4c | 471.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Yes | 11c | 407$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 372.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 13c | 346.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc2…65dcbacked Yes | 16c | 331.16$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 299.94$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.85 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 71c | 294.38$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 34c | 273.62$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.69 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd597…9babbacked Yes | 70c | 232.11$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes | 68c | 208.77$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.13 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x327f…2c55backed Yes | 7c | 205.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 10c | 190.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 19c | 188.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 62c | 187.53$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.27 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 36c | 176.61$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 59c | 158.86$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.87 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 9c | 153.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed No | 55c | 151.02$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 13c | 149.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 22c | 147.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d0…6fb4backed Yes | 10c | 143.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 14cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 40c | 130.91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.72 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 126.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…16e5backed Yes | 76c | 116.34$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.33 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 71c | 103.24$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked Yes | 11c | 90.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…f3f3backed No | 67c | 81.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d5…55f7backed Yes | 26c | 80.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 21c | 77.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed Yes | 69c | 71.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 70c | 69.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 34c | 69.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 62c | 62.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 26c | 58.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 31c | 49.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc524…3633backed No | 35c | 43.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 38.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 66c | 33.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 79c | 31.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…d1f3backed Yes | 62c | 28.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 67c | 28.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 76c | 28.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 73c | 26.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…fe1bbacked Yes | 72c | 19.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.