Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb659e76190d977acfedfc2816ce02791876806bcea0283c57344b5530ec651f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x792b…0775backed Yes | 2c | 1,111$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 905.49$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.64 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 7c | 687.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 6c | 561.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…ee1dbacked Yes | 49c | 312.45$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 19c | 301.68$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 1,078 | 36.5%393 W · 685 L | +25.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 26c | 280.39$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.51 | 490 | 24.9%122 W · 368 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x654c…2c4fbacked Yes | 49c | 243.54$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes | 7c | 231.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 28c | 209.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 41c | 199.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 51c | 185.54$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.91 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…1ad2backed Yes | 40c | 162.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.63 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 12c | 146.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x60ad…545dbacked No | 61c | 144.86$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 141.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed No | 59c | 140.57$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.67 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 37c | 135.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 132.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 62c | 132.37$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 19c | 122.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 56c | 118.56$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 62c | 116.37$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…901ebacked No | 74c | 110.46$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 50c | 103.28$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 199 | 27.1%54 W · 145 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 40c | 102.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c0…646ebacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 61c | 98.7$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes | 49c | 96.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…c533backed No | 51c | 95.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…cc19backed Yes | 45c | 88.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 50c | 87.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 77c | 77.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 15c | 75.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 70.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 4,014 | 35.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0201…adeabacked Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed No | 57c | 67.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 76c | 64.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc2…65dcbacked No | 62c | 61.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 59.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 74c | 58.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 40c | 56.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 54c | 52.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 30c | 46.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 51c | 46.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes | 51c | 40.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 30c | 39.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 37.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0473…0442backed Yes | 41c | 37.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0adb…9eb8backed No | 62c | 36.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…0a1fbacked Yes | 44c | 35.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 61c | 29.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 58c | 24.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked No | 61c | 21.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.