Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14d67abbff6f11f4c79d148d5483850a346feebaed777cac2c144d178a782920
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 1c | 999.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 59c | 915.49$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 11c | 908.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 42c | 816.36$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.12 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes | 79c | 767.7$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.73 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 20c | 577$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.27 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 457.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 67c | 313.92$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.98 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked No | 5c | 293.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed No | 20c | 289$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…16e5backed Yes | 76c | 287.84$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 79c | 284.9$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.65 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 268.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.55 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 49c | 250.7$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.8 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…1ad2backed Yes | 14c | 250.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.21 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…465cbacked Yes | 28c | 235.09$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.68 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 16c | 234$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 27c | 211.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.45 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 12c | 191.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 32c | 189.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.44 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 15c | 188.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.88 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 25c | 186.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.91 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 164.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 163.2$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.57 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 28c | 155.55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.48 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 16c | 153.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.06 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0208…c2c2backed Yes | 7c | 151.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.57 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 29c | 144.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.48 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed No | 72c | 135$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 45c | 131.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 26c | 130$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…43b6backed Yes | 14c | 124.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.19 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 35c | 120.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.47 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 19c | 119.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.41 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 44c | 118.28$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…01b6backed Yes | 21c | 112.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.33 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa3…0d65backed No | 75c | 104.83$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.62 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 17c | 104$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.21 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 73c | 95.01$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 91.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 64c | 90.16$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 38c | 87.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 69c | 85.35$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 56c | 85.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 20c | 82.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.26 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 27c | 82.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 62c | 76.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…b329backed No | 69c | 73.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 42c | 69.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 72c | 63.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…f334backed Yes | 41c | 55.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…83acbacked Yes | 37c | 52.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…d85bbacked Yes | 38c | 52.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 34c | 50.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ba…c42fbacked Yes | 28c | 48.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc524…3633backed No | 74c | 45.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 72c | 41.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…db4dbacked Yes | 48c | 39.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…eadfbacked Yes | 49c | 39.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a4…d89fbacked Yes | 70c | 38.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 36.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 57c | 34.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6574…3230backed Yes | 70c | 33.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 74c | 32.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0d…0b2fbacked Yes | 54c | 31.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 76c | 30.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 71c | 28.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 27.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 71c | 27.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed No | 62c | 27.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 73c | 26.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 79c | 23.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 18.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 17.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 74c | 17.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 73c | 17.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 73c | 16.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 74c | 16.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 72c | 14.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.