Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1ddf824b76273abe30f6ba02100e0762b57dcf65bc14d19b82f08805dabafcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 2c | 983.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 12c | 357.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…9f87backed No | 5c | 322.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 61c | 277.89$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.04 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 218.54$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 6c | 214.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 6c | 191.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 167.68$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.87 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 47c | 164.89$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.76 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 129.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 54c | 110.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 101$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked No | 63c | 96.3$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.67 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 48c | 92.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 54c | 89.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 76.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb666…0dcbbacked Yes | 47c | 68.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e5…993cbacked Yes | 47c | 68.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 31c | 67.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 67.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 34c | 62.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 51c | 61.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 21c | 61.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed No | 52c | 59.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 79c | 57.95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 75c | 57.48$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 47c | 57.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 47c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 33c | 48.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed Yes | 42c | 48.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255c…16dfbacked Yes | 50c | 47.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 42c | 47.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 51c | 47.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 34c | 46.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 66c | 45.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 42c | 44.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4507…b272backed No | 56c | 42.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Yes | 57c | 41.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 49c | 39.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 47c | 39.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 70c | 38.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 38.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 39c | 37.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…89bcbacked Yes | 44c | 36.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 54c | 34.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 48c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked No | 60c | 31.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 52c | 30.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 30.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 67c | 30.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 61c | 29.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 80c | 29.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked Yes | 43c | 28.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 52c | 27.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 40c | 26.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 42c | 26.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 51c | 26.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…d11fbacked Yes | 79c | 25.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…b6aabacked No | 58c | 25.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 41c | 25.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 52c | 23.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…c8bbbacked No | 60c | 19.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 69c | 19.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 67c | 17.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 65c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…041fbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.