NBA · resolved market
76ers vs. Wizards: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1f1d2a22d0bc7531317d33ab2e44dd12994651437f80e3e275b6e2e4e431f19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 10,959$5,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,220.47 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 4,786$2,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,322.05 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 52c | 3,462$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,661.54 | 480 | 54.2%260 W · 220 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3b…10eebacked Over | 50c | 2,412$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea1…70d1backed Under | 50c | 2,412$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Over | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43c…04e8backed Over | 49c | 1,868$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.89 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 52c | 1,527$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.12 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…7253backed Over | 51c | 1,470$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.52 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 50c | 1,443$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.41 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf78e…0956backed Over | 70c | 1,317$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 48c | 1,283$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Under | 48c | 999.98$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.99 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Over | 52c | 700$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 52c | 494.05$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.14 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 52c | 169$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.12 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 51c | 159$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 49c | 158.08$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.46 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 49c | 150$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…7942backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 48c | 88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…06f9backed Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8472…29d3backed Over | 51c | 72.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ece…a0d6backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 76ers vs. Wizards: O/U 238.5this page
- 76ers vs. Wizards76ers won
- 76ers vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- 76ers vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: 76ers (-3.5)76ers won
- Spread: 76ers (-4.5)76ers won
- Spread: 76ers (-5.5)Wizards won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.