TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,937
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,395

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,937 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8103…23a1backed Yes3c1,123$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6857614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes4c945.08$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2743021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No75c624.35$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.3112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes47c578.62$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.298151.9%42 W · 39 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4b3…c131backed Yes27c419.57$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.12416.7%4 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee38…fd31backed No71c417.79$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.783557.1%20 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes9c401.89$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.335,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes50c338.66$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.9510843.5%47 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5207…4cfcbacked Yes4c271.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.49434.7%2 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-93.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes36c249.6$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6740025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ad…545dbacked No64c243.29$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.91729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+89.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98cd…c987backed Yes32c234.95$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.95837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes38c226.71$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.231,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2632…6475backed Yes10c208.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.793246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes45c199.97$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.999428.7%27 W · 67 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes17c196.34$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2774023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No67c171.43$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.794,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes8c160.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.81,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes26c145$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8360523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No77c132.07$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe732…1613backed Yes8c122.05$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes34c112.01$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.143129%9 W · 22 L-5.8wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-43.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes38c110.03$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.312,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No63c102.3$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.521,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244143.9%18 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a19…1e2ebacked No76c99.99$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2441767.9%283 W · 134 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No71c98.94$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xded8…ae40backed No52c91.69$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.093333.3%11 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75ea…1616backed Yes40c77.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.844341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03fd…0cc2backed Yes31c76.87$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.121258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.21per pick37cpaid+30.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes30c76.15$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5632132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35be…567ebacked No70c71.98$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.591283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+35.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes39c71.89$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1819160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes27c70.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.929,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed No67c63.69$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.011,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked No79c63.41$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.460851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes43c60.93$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9163538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf967…1adfbacked No55c60.77$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3531262.5%195 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes19c59.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes40c58.3$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.321,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes41c57.83$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.441,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes31c55.83$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1398236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x693c…d079backed Yes24c52.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.532839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No77c51.75$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.831,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes25c50.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6786420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdded…13a2backed Yes49c50.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.861942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-20.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x12cd…fab2backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+29.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1525239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed Yes49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.527540%110 W · 165 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e3…f004backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.527732.5%90 W · 187 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe47b…a081backed Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35af…8e95backed No75c49.53$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.497762.3%48 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No60c48.32$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5353437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes26c46.8$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1842849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0187…0200backed Yes29c43.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.666640.9%27 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No62c42.82$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1383459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5576…59e9backed Yes32c41.48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2717033.5%57 W · 113 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b99…296bbacked No77c39.08$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.035825.9%15 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed No75c39$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.754170.7%29 W · 12 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes52c36.16$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6240739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed No59c35.28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3719547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ebd…e0cabacked Yes36c30.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.241435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes36c29.53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.517,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed Yes35c29.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2837533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No64c29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.414,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e5…b209backed Yes46c28.38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.055521.8%12 W · 43 L-12.8wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-57.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xd228…ea6fbacked No66c27.76$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5122934.1%78 W · 151 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No55c26.05$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7253547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07c6…76f3backed No56c25.76$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.42650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0479…8cbbbacked No64c25.53$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.133839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No70c25.18$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5586173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…bc32backed Yes46c22.82$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcce…65afbacked No76c21.2$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0627771.5%198 W · 79 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed No65c21.14$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3755538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed No65c20.49$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1741733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x153f…cb70backed No70c20.11$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.94862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No76c19.52$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6895852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x901f…64f0backed No67c19.48$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4313133.6%44 W · 87 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x74f9…6024backed No66c18.34$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.246958%40 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No77c17.88$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1135058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa96d…7553backed No71c16.45$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.75633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.