Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea731e90322010de2f68b38ef93deb80239ce58a583b4fe8f61014628ad92f0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 656.69$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 76c | 618.04$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 17c | 434.86$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.72 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 34c | 378.92$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.43 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 5c | 374.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ad…545dbacked No | 10c | 339.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 57c | 277.84$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.07 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x94af…e65fbacked Yes | 67c | 251.56$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.91 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 42c | 244.97$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.66 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 228.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 68c | 215.31$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 64c | 215.24$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.91 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 209.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 55c | 197.56$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.19 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 188.19$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 14c | 183.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.47 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed No | 65c | 177.73$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.14 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 60c | 159.9$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked No | 58c | 144.26$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 141.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.34 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…fd31backed Yes | 45c | 140.13$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 23c | 131.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.92 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…43b6backed Yes | 15c | 129.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.92 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 37c | 108.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 45c | 105.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 54c | 103.27$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 31c | 97.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.72 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3b…22aebacked Yes | 41c | 94.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 43c | 91.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 91.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…d079backed Yes | 59c | 89.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 71c | 89.14$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 46c | 84.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…ac2fbacked Yes | 46c | 83.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb8…207ebacked Yes | 69c | 82.06$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 23c | 81.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.49 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 65c | 79.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8c…7026backed No | 49c | 76.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 70c | 76.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2d…32c9backed Yes | 39c | 75.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 44c | 75.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 31c | 75.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 42c | 74.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e1…b9cdbacked Yes | 65c | 74.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed No | 41c | 69.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 52c | 65.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 63.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…bb58backed Yes | 66c | 54.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 49c | 53.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes | 53c | 53.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 42c | 52.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…5f24backed Yes | 56c | 51.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 64c | 49.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…c777backed Yes | 63c | 42.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes | 41c | 42.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cf…4c49backed Yes | 46c | 41.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 31c | 41.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 31c | 39.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 40c | 39.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…1e24backed No | 30c | 38.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 61c | 38.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380b…09d2backed No | 73c | 38.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03fd…0cc2backed Yes | 55c | 34.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…5e59backed Yes | 53c | 34.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd7…dfe9backed Yes | 46c | 33.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Yes | 54c | 33.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 59c | 32.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 57c | 32.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 58c | 32.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 66c | 31.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…bd99backed No | 46c | 31.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 31.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…9f1bbacked Yes | 37c | 30.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +172.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 43c | 29.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 67c | 28.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…8cbbbacked No | 57c | 28.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3794…715cbacked No | 69c | 28.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 43c | 27.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 57c | 26.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 53c | 26.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 57c | 25.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 42c | 25.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd206…f1b3backed Yes | 44c | 25.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be8…14cbbacked Yes | 72c | 24.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 62c | 22.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 74c | 20.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 50c | 20.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebd…e0cabacked Yes | 51c | 20.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.