TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,644
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,954

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,644 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No41c656.69$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.0812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed Yes76c618.04$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.818668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No17c434.86$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.7260523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes34c378.92$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.4357614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No5c374.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.756219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ad…545dbacked No10c339.1$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.431729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+89.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c68…7936backed Yes57c277.84$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.0710784.1%90 W · 17 L+30.1wins+0.28per pick56cpaid+66%equal weight75+0.23 edge/pick
0x94af…e65fbacked Yes67c251.56$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.912740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes42c244.97$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.6640025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes10c228.72$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.4217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes68c215.31$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.175,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes64c215.24$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.9133058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No33c209.72$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes55c197.56$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.191,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No65c188.19$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.767,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes14c183.28$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.4774023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed No65c177.73$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.1437942.5%161 W · 218 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes60c159.9$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.897146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28f7…9a6abacked No58c144.26$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3610843.5%47 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes28c141.08$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.342,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee38…fd31backed Yes45c140.13$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.753557.1%20 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed Yes23c131.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.9237533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7716…43b6backed Yes15c129.32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.923821.1%8 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+52.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No37c108.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.62,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed Yes45c105.57$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3315131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes54c103.27$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.728151.9%42 W · 39 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383225%8 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x92eb…9668backed Yes58c99.99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9910936.7%40 W · 69 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9387…d659backed Yes31c97.22$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.7227130.6%83 W · 188 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe3b…22aebacked Yes41c94.8$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.641758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes43c91.74$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4163538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No54c91.6$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.144,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x693c…d079backed Yes59c89.99$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.92839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No71c89.14$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.291,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ea…1616backed Yes46c84.42$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.854341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf71a…ac2fbacked Yes46c83.07$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.492544%11 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5eb8…207ebacked Yes69c82.06$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.61384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick64cpaid+30.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes23c81.15$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4994919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes65c79.43$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0243050.2%216 W · 214 L+21.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c8c…7026backed No49c76.88$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.981822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-25.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2354…fab1backed Yes70c76.06$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6114062.9%88 W · 52 L+11.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f2d…32c9backed Yes39c75.51$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.41616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-56.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes44c75.43$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.473441.2%14 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+23.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes31c75.21$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.041,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No42c74.32$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.231,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41e1…b9cdbacked Yes65c74.32$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.07250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…9936backed No41c69.51$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2210059%59 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes52c65.54$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2625239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No77c64.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5086173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.052,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes32c63.1$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.893,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes30c60$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4299949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4169…bb58backed Yes66c54.4$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.361241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes49c53.82$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.529770.4%209 W · 88 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes53c53.55$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.923129%9 W · 22 L-5.8wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-43.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdc5b…619abacked No42c52.55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0727464.6%177 W · 97 L-1.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066a…5f24backed Yes56c51.22$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.49425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed Yes43c49.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.527540%110 W · 165 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.992,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes64c49.29$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9123738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaba0…c777backed Yes63c42.59$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.76837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes41c42.43$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9221068.6%144 W · 66 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2cf…4c49backed Yes46c41.13$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.21922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick15cpaid-48.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes31c41.03$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.121,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166747.8%32 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+31.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed No31c39.89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.21,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes40c39.1$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.534,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfa3…1e24backed No30c38.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6610260.8%62 W · 40 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes61c38.44$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9798236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x380b…09d2backed No73c38.36$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.81944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick63cpaid-42.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03fd…0cc2backed Yes55c34.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.91258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.21per pick37cpaid+30.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2779…5e59backed Yes53c34.39$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.263860.5%23 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+30.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfd7…dfe9backed Yes46c33.85$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.341030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-39.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdded…13a2backed Yes54c33.71$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.51942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-20.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5278…5306backed Yes59c32.7$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5214941.6%62 W · 87 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed No57c32.6$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5819547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed Yes58c32.56$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5146444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No31c32.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes66c31.86$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7819160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b1c…bd99backed No46c31.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.343743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes40c31.02$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6166926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0832…9f1bbacked Yes37c30.64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+172.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c67…a109backed Yes62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.46041.7%25 W · 35 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7940871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No43c29.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6293734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xfdd4…6084backed Yes67c28.79$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4413534.1%46 W · 89 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0479…8cbbbacked No57c28.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.243839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3794…715cbacked No69c28.09$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.38944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes43c27.86$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.881,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No57c26.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1553547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No53c26.18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.871,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x548a…e37abacked No57c25.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.736845.6%31 W · 37 L-7.7wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-21.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes42c25.29$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5525037.6%94 W · 156 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd206…f1b3backed Yes44c25.03$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.091346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5be8…14cbbacked Yes72c24.08$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.744866.7%32 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes62c22.13$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3421547.4%102 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No74c20.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.472,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed No50c20.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4541733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ebd…e0cabacked Yes51c20.4$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.931435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.