Bundesliga · resolved market
RB Leipzig vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf21cc797bfee74e5984419339baa420d35340622e3756ff1fab5723fc78a20ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbab6…f845backed Under | 0c | 10,830$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 5,737$2,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,026.61 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…85bbbacked Over | 65c | 3,786$2,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.1 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 32c | 3,621$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.59 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a2…505cbacked Over | 69c | 3,000$2,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 80c | 2,251$1,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.19 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 12c | 1,961$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.32 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 19c | 1,500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.99 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Under | 51c | 1,427$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Over | 45c | 1,000$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 35c | 545.67$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.83 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 50c | 342.29$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.59 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed Over | 80c | 319.41$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.88 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 50c | 288$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 31c | 248.39$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Over | 43c | 185$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc36…180fbacked Over | 76c | 178.89$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 50c | 144$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c2…6784backed Over | 80c | 123.75$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…13d5backed Over | 72c | 111.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 37c | 110.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a3…790fbacked Under | 20c | 101.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 47 | 85.1%40 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…132abacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 53c | 94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 49c | 91.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…49b7backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c0…5baabacked Over | 80c | 74.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 77c | 64.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 65 | 83.1%54 W · 11 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…9479backed Over | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 80c | 58.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf74d…a578backed Over | 80c | 54.34$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked Over | 57c | 51.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcb…1879backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…9e9bbacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked Over | 60c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…035dbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…8045backed Under | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…f733backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Over | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Over | 57c | 32.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…f32cbacked Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 36 | 88.9%32 W · 4 L | +8.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x246c…8142backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 80c | 22.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…2d68backed Over | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Over | 63c | 17.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2545…6edebacked Over | 80c | 15.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed7e…c090backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 78cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RB Leipzig vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5this page
- RB Leipzig vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- RB Leipzig vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- RB Leipzig vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- RB Leipzig vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)RB Leipzig won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.