Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb59e9f88329968b405e351a8bd8ed84679b637d8c9f58d55134525ce37377917
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- RB Leipzigof RB Leipzig, SC Freiburg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed SC Freiburg | 70c | 14,274$9,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,959.59 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed RB Leipzig | 30c | 7,362$2,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,164.83 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed RB Leipzig | 34c | 3,000$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,992.86 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked RB Leipzig | 29c | 2,433$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,727.51 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed SC Freiburg | 67c | 2,236$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.95 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed RB Leipzig | 31c | 1,613$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.9 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…8425backed RB Leipzig | 30c | 1,050$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked SC Freiburg | 66c | 1,014$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.24 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed SC Freiburg | 66c | 720$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.4 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked RB Leipzig | 33c | 573.45$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.28 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2595…31b0backed SC Freiburg | 70c | 455$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be5…dff9backed RB Leipzig | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…5d79backed SC Freiburg | 70c | 360$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked RB Leipzig | 34c | 352.94$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2623…e65abacked RB Leipzig | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed SC Freiburg | 70c | 287$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked RB Leipzig | 33c | 284.73$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.77 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1daa…262cbacked SC Freiburg | 70c | 235$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked RB Leipzig | 38c | 223.13$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.34 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked SC Freiburg | 73c | 192$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.52 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed RB Leipzig | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…49b7backed RB Leipzig | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed RB Leipzig | 25c | 150$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.93 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed SC Freiburg | 68c | 146.18$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.38 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked RB Leipzig | 31c | 145.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.16 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed RB Leipzig | 28c | 142.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.13 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked RB Leipzig | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked RB Leipzig | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed SC Freiburg | 70c | 129$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked RB Leipzig | 32c | 125$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed SC Freiburg | 70c | 120$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb4…9854backed RB Leipzig | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…2ecabacked SC Freiburg | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed SC Freiburg | 70c | 96$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked RB Leipzig | 32c | 94.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.58 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked RB Leipzig | 21c | 93.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.83 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed SC Freiburg | 70c | 89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed SC Freiburg | 70c | 88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +45%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed SC Freiburg | 71c | 86.02$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.07 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked SC Freiburg | 70c | 80$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad1…f3a6backed RB Leipzig | 32c | 77.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b71…0e06backed RB Leipzig | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +137.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed RB Leipzig | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae77…fa72backed SC Freiburg | 69c | 62.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…161cbacked SC Freiburg | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 79cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed SC Freiburg | 67c | 62.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed RB Leipzig | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed SC Freiburg | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed SC Freiburg | 70c | 57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked RB Leipzig | 31c | 56.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked RB Leipzig | 42c | 50.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed SC Freiburg | 70c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…d7b0backed RB Leipzig | 30c | 44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9a3ebacked RB Leipzig | 30c | 44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed SC Freiburg | 71c | 42.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…64d2backed RB Leipzig | 30c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked RB Leipzig | 31c | 40.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked SC Freiburg | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x940c…abbcbacked RB Leipzig | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…304cbacked RB Leipzig | 30c | 39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed SC Freiburg | 67c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed RB Leipzig | 40c | 27.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed SC Freiburg | 71c | 16.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…ed2bbacked SC Freiburg | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked SC Freiburg | 71c | 14.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 201 | 53.7%108 W · 93 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c6…bc0fbacked SC Freiburg | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)this page
- RB Leipzig vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- RB Leipzig vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- RB Leipzig vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- RB Leipzig vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.