TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

RB Leipzig vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$169,985
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$174,330

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,985 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 204 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa6ee…697bbacked Over57c29,998$17,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,239.674443.2%19 W · 25 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over56c23,149$12,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,950.1310553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under51c14,857$7,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,230.073,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbab6…f845backed Over0c12,810$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.81742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Under44c10,000$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,6007062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under43c6,583$2,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,730.6878248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d2f…6cadbacked Under44c5,495$2,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,077.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Under44c5,224$2,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,925.522867.9%19 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+29.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Under45c5,189$2,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,853.688752.9%46 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Over56c4,986$2,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,792.155653.6%30 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over56c4,600$2,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,572.961,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Under43c4,183$1,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,401.1210945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over57c3,642$2,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,076.1433244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Under40c3,353$1,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,011.51650%8 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5165…175bbacked Under44c3,098$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,734.862035%7 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked Under44c3,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6807057.1%40 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Under44c3,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6806459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Under42c3,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,739.994835.4%17 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over25c2,926$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.542,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Over60c2,500$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5009854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under41c2,304$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,350.4856547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Under44c2,273$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,272.734254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over56c1,979$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.3434144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03d2…e29dbacked Over1c1,800$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.96540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x678b…beafbacked Over58c1,725$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.35742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Over61c1,640$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.398068.8%55 W · 25 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Over31c1,174$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.57129.6%21 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Over56c1,116$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.9251136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Under44c1,053$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.681250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa445…6711backed Over58c1,011$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.174975.5%37 W · 12 L+8.2wins+0.17per pick59cpaid+26.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4a42…2a7ebacked Over45c1,004$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4544542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Over51c1,000$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.544337.2%16 W · 27 L-5.6wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-27.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Under45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5509048.9%44 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Over56c961$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.164837.5%18 W · 30 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90a5…9dccbacked Over22c909$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.986761.2%41 W · 26 L+13.8wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Over57c877.19$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50015540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32a2…505cbacked Over62c859.62$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.95366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under49c794.13$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.3775142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Over58c775.86$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45038055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x162f…585abacked Over57c725.33$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.44633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over56c708.45$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.7316850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f8…5486backed Over56c607$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.92944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Over56c600$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3363053.3%16 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Over57c587.72$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3354252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Under45c524.99$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.745052%26 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over58c517.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30018759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Under44c500$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2808251.2%42 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd479…dd18backed Over58c500$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9da…81d7backed Over57c482.46$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27530%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under40c464$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.418545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under43c463.76$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.5944749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc049…48abbacked Over23c434.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006142.6%26 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under44c420$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.215454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Under44c420$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.28864.8%57 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Over56c418.36$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.282147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed Under40c400$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2406251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under41c400$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.0822829.4%67 W · 161 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x92ae…a7b0backed Under59c371.9$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.481070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under42c346$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.6830054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Over63c314.49$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19710552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over58c307.49$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.3911056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x329c…18dfbacked Under44c300$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1681957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+17.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0e7…3335backed Over71c300$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2136366.7%42 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Under44c300$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16811860.2%71 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over39c270.43$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8516542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb447…8582backed Over51c263.71$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.41450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2303…b9a7backed Under43c251.47$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.34850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under44c250$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1408461.9%52 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe025…102fbacked Under43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.56540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5611…e5f4backed Over57c228.63$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.323847.4%18 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8dd…ddbcbacked Over57c227.99$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.951376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+23.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf256…3767backed Over37c225$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfc3f…753cbacked Over48c222.29$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.7785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick68cpaid+22.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdf6…773bbacked Over23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502157.1%12 W · 9 L+5.3wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+75.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x33a7…960dbacked Over40c215$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8611630.2%35 W · 81 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under43c203.77$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.2110040%40 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2496…50a5backed Over29c203.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606549.2%32 W · 33 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Under44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1122962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11213256.1%74 W · 58 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c12…1f27backed Over56c199.97$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.98966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+35%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78e3…9c9bbacked Over51c197.98$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa40d…f4d0backed Over57c196$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.721464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over29c192.96$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8911045.5%50 W · 60 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Under44c192.02$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.5312757.5%73 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under44c180$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.812356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked Over57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+29.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb18c…df51backed Over57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010648.1%51 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a52…45e7backed Over57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001080%8 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+34.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x47d3…4255backed Over57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Under44c170$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.213859.4%82 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under44c170$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.212458.9%73 W · 51 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Under44c170$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.26460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Over38c170$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.688551.8%44 W · 41 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Under44c170$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.212358.5%72 W · 51 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Under44c169.97$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1811458.8%67 W · 47 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Under44c160$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.611563.5%73 W · 42 L+13.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under58c159.44$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.491,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe19a…abafbacked Over61c150$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.51752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Under44c150$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8410360.2%62 W · 41 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfdc6…0e75backed Over42c143.2$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.