Bundesliga · resolved market
RB Leipzig vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74419124ab25e92beb648d8332362566f9e7297b272838b45dbc902bf5b1a822
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 7c | 51,192$3,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,713.29 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 75c | 7,350$5,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,837.5 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 72c | 3,136$2,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.84 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 73c | 2,314$1,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.23 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 35c | 1,500$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.5 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 24c | 889.66$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…3128backed Over | 8c | 637.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +7.6wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a42…2a7ebacked Over | 38c | 399.27$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 66c | 348.2$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 32c | 310.78$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.44 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 34c | 283.4$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.36 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 35c | 262.22$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.85 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 31c | 238.26$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.86 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 36c | 216.67$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…5665backed Under | 68c | 212.78$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 51c | 192.2$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.54 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 64c | 183.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 35c | 171.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Under | 66c | 163$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe19a…abafbacked Over | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…da58backed Over | 7c | 149.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…16c1backed Under | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf6…773bbacked Over | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 15c | 135.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Under | 79c | 118.21$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked Under | 79c | 102.85$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 66c | 93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Over | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Over | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Over | 34c | 79.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 35c | 79.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 26c | 79.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…4037backed Under | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Over | 27c | 71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 33c | 70.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 34c | 63.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 32c | 62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Under | 68c | 55.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb343…61afbacked Over | 26c | 52.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Under | 67c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Over | 34c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 37c | 45.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed Over | 34c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Under | 67c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Under | 76c | 30.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Under | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6125…1b5fbacked Under | 66c | 24.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 63c | 22.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 66c | 20.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 73c | 19.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3801…83ddbacked Under | 77c | 13.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RB Leipzig vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5this page
- RB Leipzig vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- RB Leipzig vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- RB Leipzig vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)RB Leipzig won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.