Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf25e77456b38f077d97053df4c6fb5d4423e9fec4d0326ab378796be4c92ad1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 58c | 737.29$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.57 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 529.12$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 53c | 358.96$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.54 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 45c | 294$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.78 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 48c | 250.38$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 249.33$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 211.16$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.69 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 49c | 194.46$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.46 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 171.94$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 160$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 57c | 134.26$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 49c | 121$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 23c | 120.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 40c | 112$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 50c | 106.61$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 58c | 99.09$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 18c | 94.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 89.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 57c | 81.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ae…033dbacked Yes | 44c | 77.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 74.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 56c | 68.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 56c | 67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 43c | 55.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 57c | 53.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 48c | 51.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 23c | 50.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 49.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae42…9235backed Yes | 54c | 48.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 49c | 47.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 46.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 41c | 40.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 39.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 39c | 38.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 56c | 38.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 42c | 38.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 40c | 37.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…eb75backed No | 55c | 36.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48c8…4ccabacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 46c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 32.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 44c | 31.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 70c | 27.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…ee28backed No | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 51c | 25.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 50c | 24.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 57c | 24.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 46c | 22.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 21.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 54c | 20.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 74c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 63c | 18.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…f92fbacked No | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…d896backed No | 71c | 15.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 97°F or below on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.