Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb9725d7c71c0765491bacdc7e398cd506349409d6b3c882707beb0943b3bd2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 26c | 1,585$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.57 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 37c | 1,262$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.27 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 928.02$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 413$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.54 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 76c | 394.31$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 373.58$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.92 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 67c | 358.71$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.05 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 311.17$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.48 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 39c | 289.35$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.2 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 272.18$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.05 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 59c | 259.54$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.62 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 72c | 232.71$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.6 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 47c | 213.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 24c | 203.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 182.75$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.27 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 162.08$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 160$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 135.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 67c | 126.81$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 65c | 124.7$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.06 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 70c | 107.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.81 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 105.63$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 74c | 100.53$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.66 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 47c | 98.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 96.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 89.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b929backed Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 18c | 77.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 52c | 74.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 68c | 72.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 58c | 66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 25c | 54.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 26c | 51.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 39c | 51.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3466…ff2fbacked Yes | 31c | 50.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 50c | 47.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace1…875ebacked Yes | 28c | 46.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…c69cbacked Yes | 33c | 44.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 71c | 42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 61c | 34.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4910…bd79backed Yes | 57c | 34.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 36c | 33.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 37c | 31.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 63c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa589…9ec9backed Yes | 66c | 30.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 67c | 30.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 74c | 29.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 44c | 29.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 69c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf444…8d4abacked No | 73c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 77c | 25.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 68c | 23.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 67c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 78c | 21.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 21.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 68c | 20.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb92a…02a0backed Yes | 75c | 19.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 67c | 19.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 65c | 17.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 77c | 16.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 69c | 14.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 97°F or below on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.