Tennis · resolved market
ATP Cincinnati - Tien vs. Rublev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2642c653939e35df8ad1d796d47df059d12326a4b7bc08029b82a4a711ed0c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rublevof Tien, Rublev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Tien | 33c | 10,500$3,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,495 | 158 | 32.9%52 W · 106 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Rublev | 67c | 8,014$5,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,645 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2719…28ddbacked Tien | 10c | 5,078$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.87 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…472abacked Tien | 10c | 4,972$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.25 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf1…c324backed Rublev | 66c | 2,983$1,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Rublev | 57c | 2,632$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.58 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Rublev | 75c | 1,945$1,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.56 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Rublev | 66c | 1,627$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.36 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Tien | 12c | 1,302$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.46 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Rublev | 75c | 743.48$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.48 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Rublev | 70c | 656$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.8 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe259…b890backed Tien | 18c | 643.09$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.35 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Tien | 33c | 341.07$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.55 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Tien | 32c | 309.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad98…8733backed Rublev | 66c | 279$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.73 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Tien | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 143 | 43.4%62 W · 81 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Tien | 22c | 247.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Rublev | 66c | 225.63$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.63 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Rublev | 67c | 206.93$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.29 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Rublev | 67c | 177.71$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.94 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Tien | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Rublev | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Tien | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b3b1backed Tien | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 372 | 33.9%126 W · 246 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Tien | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Tien | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Tien | 33c | 106$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Tien | 17c | 105.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf23a…df6fbacked Tien | 13c | 102.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 512 | 52.1%267 W · 245 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Rublev | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec00…f896backed Tien | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ec…6c4fbacked Rublev | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fb…2b2abacked Rublev | 67c | 59.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…69a8backed Tien | 34c | 48.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.