Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf26b964243f18e8b11c73c403ab681988ad821beb944fa8cbf9093b476a5f755
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 53,613$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.12 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 0c | 15,960$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 201.71$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.01 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 55c | 185.17$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.08 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 45c | 174.31$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.76 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…5111backed No | 56c | 168.22$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 76c | 152.33$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.43 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 150.59$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 28c | 137.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.56 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 129.22$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 46c | 106.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 61c | 106.09$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 10c | 105.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.73 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 45c | 102$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked Yes | 52c | 95.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 17c | 94.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.38 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 66c | 93.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 88.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 37c | 79.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 22c | 79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.28 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed No | 18c | 78.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.15 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 44c | 69.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 37c | 60.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked Yes | 65c | 60.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes | 52c | 58.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 59c | 50.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 28c | 46.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 59c | 44.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 40c | 43.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 59c | 42.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 40c | 41.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 51c | 40.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 35c | 38.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 35c | 37.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 54c | 36.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 73c | 36.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…d21abacked Yes | 57c | 35.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc9…c353backed Yes | 46c | 31.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 54c | 31.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 60c | 30.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 73c | 27.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7546…b17abacked No | 55c | 27.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked Yes | 57c | 26.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked Yes | 55c | 25.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac44…f420backed Yes | 51c | 23.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39eb…c75fbacked Yes | 48c | 22.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…928dbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e48…22ecbacked Yes | 57c | 19.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa73a…27d9backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.