Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb425534529d099d59a002e786fe504422ac04afb9b141ce53bd711ffb5bb156
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 0c | 15,960$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 733.36$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.63 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 25c | 437.31$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.36 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 70c | 285.58$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.46 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 271.22$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.74 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 70c | 224.14$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.97 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 166.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 37c | 163.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 68c | 157.12$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 32c | 155.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 69c | 144.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 126.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…2e6dbacked Yes | 34c | 119.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 24c | 106$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 29c | 105.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 69c | 105.84$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 31c | 103$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 66c | 99.6$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 98.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…b11bbacked Yes | 30c | 95.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…1f29backed No | 72c | 94.56$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 93.02$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 28c | 92.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 68c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 79.26$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8990…38adbacked Yes | 31c | 71.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 70c | 67.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 67c | 65.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 68c | 65.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 29c | 60.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked No | 74c | 59.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 57.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 72c | 56.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 28c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 33c | 51.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c7…c6bdbacked No | 68c | 49.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 49.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes | 31c | 47.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 46.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 65c | 41.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 36c | 40.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 39c | 40.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 31c | 39.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 65c | 38.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 38c | 37.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed No | 69c | 34.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 71c | 33.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e94…5b9dbacked Yes | 31c | 32.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 76c | 31.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…6eacbacked No | 74c | 28.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 73c | 28.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 70c | 27.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 70c | 26.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 24.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 71c | 23.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 64c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 68c | 22.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bd24backed No | 66c | 22.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked No | 67c | 22.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 65c | 22.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 63c | 17.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…ebdcbacked No | 68c | 17.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 64 | 81.3%52 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 62c | 16.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 67c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 73c | 14.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.