Middle East · resolved market
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf27794e12b7d1ee3055a2d3f969b8c70d8ea4de0edb7d0516df67f05178e4617
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 4c | 1,800$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked No | 75c | 1,677$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.53 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f5…db45backed Yes | 15c | 970.84$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.85 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 12c | 700$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.54 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 573.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.91 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 76c | 524.16$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.16 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 40c | 499.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 469.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 8c | 394.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 18c | 381.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 316.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 31c | 299.85$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.1 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 11c | 208.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed No | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +15.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6524…66a3backed Yes | 54c | 185.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 13c | 175.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…d3d6backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Yes | 29c | 115.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 113.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +329.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf903…e028backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 40cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa465…6b06backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…bed0backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 74.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4dc…86dfbacked Yes | 40c | 39.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e24…ba64backed Yes | 67c | 29.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…d1c6backed Yes | 67c | 22.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc70…cc56backed No | 79c | 22.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…fb82backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…5e41backed No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9af0…5816backed No | 79c | 13.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.