Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2edb4c7c6313eae71445d3d26c41591609e9199c81f00a633b3c0b71130a3c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 48c | 2,044$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.55 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 53c | 1,047$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.92 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 51c | 560.43$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.17 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 46c | 290$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.6 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 32c | 214.21$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 47c | 183.92$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.05 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 47c | 171.89$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 171.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 38c | 170.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 27c | 156$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.42 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 20c | 139.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 119.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 119.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 45c | 101.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 48c | 91.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 89.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 43c | 89.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 66c | 86.38$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 51c | 78.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 51c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 20c | 69.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 38c | 67.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 53c | 67.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 49c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 50c | 59.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 72c | 55.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 54.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed Yes | 46c | 51.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 51c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 50c | 49.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x658e…2914backed No | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 49c | 40.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 75c | 40.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…d63cbacked No | 39c | 37.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 65c | 31.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…c757backed Yes | 66c | 31.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed Yes | 66c | 31.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…866abacked Yes | 66c | 31.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 40c | 31.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6e…8115backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…93f1backed No | 56c | 26.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 43c | 25.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 75c | 25.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 49c | 22.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 61c | 22.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 51c | 22.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 68c | 18.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…63f8backed No | 61c | 18.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba1…ea18backed Yes | 67c | 14.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.