MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf365289dcfa22c8cab9c01a444e8b98b2ae544a3e4d88999a2e04900148a124b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 8,470$4,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,556.3 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 46c | 6,070$2,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,277.63 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Over | 46c | 1,733$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.39 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 840.76$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.74 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 51c | 411.56$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.41 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 33c | 330.86$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.16 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 30c | 206.6$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.72 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…7fecbacked Over | 50c | 205.22$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.61 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 178.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.67 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 14c | 120$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.69 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 62c | 84.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Over | 46c | 59.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 47c | 56.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 58c | 52.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…cda7backed Over | 46c | 52.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 49c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Over | 48c | 46.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Over | 48c | 40.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…8254backed Under | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 89 | 66.3%59 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 45c | 39.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Over | 46c | 38.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 35c | 35.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 53c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 41c | 30.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 66c | 20.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay RaysKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.