MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc84f8331b94a23147dc65df3ffe87911a14c868c56e66ba3805168c3cea6a262
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $266,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $266,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $266,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 53c | 202,721$107,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95,664.05 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 47c | 100,000$47,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,000 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 47c | 52,115$24,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,494 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Over | 53c | 31,041$16,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,589.43 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4b88backed Under | 47c | 30,000$14,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 16,772$7,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,956.8 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…5ee4backed Under | 48c | 11,950$5,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,735.91 | 285 | 53.3%152 W · 133 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 50c | 10,243$5,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,121.71 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 48c | 9,450$4,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,530.66 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 53c | 9,026$4,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,246.56 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x595d…9ad0backed Under | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Under | 47c | 6,383$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 291 | 47.1%137 W · 154 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 3,332$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,585.29 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.99 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 48c | 2,269$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.28 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 52c | 2,059$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.44 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 65c | 1,693$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.25 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 47c | 1,417$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 49c | 1,274$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.2 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 50c | 1,188$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.09 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 48c | 1,039$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.72 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed Under | 28c | 1,000$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 49c | 966$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.34 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 867.98$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.63 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 819.53$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.76 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 37c | 520.97$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.16 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 74c | 380.53$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.31 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 27c | 330.04$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.85 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eee…9b2bbacked Under | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 50c | 183.24$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.74 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 49c | 157.96$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 50c | 148.03$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.02 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 15c | 128.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 47c | 120$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 55c | 118.9$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 112.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 47c | 100.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 46c | 70.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 51c | 60.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 78c | 56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a01…1a3cbacked Over | 62c | 48.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 42c | 45.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Over | 51c | 39.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Over | 53c | 36.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Under | 48c | 32.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 38c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 57c | 20.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Under | 51c | 19.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 54c | 19.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay RaysKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.