UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3853d383d6583c54c2fab3e8271e024641279ccc3ccdf89e0dbd0747dd7b876
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 39c | 5,078$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980.31 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.76 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda39…c640backed Under | 52c | 4,760$2,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,284.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 44c | 3,040$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342.13 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed2…4671backed Under | 61c | 2,869$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.85 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c05…fabfbacked Under | 56c | 1,400$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 61c | 1,200$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.17 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Under | 52c | 913.5$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.48 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c34…b7adbacked Under | 54c | 896.3$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Over | 48c | 833.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…fa14backed Under | 55c | 827.93$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa06a…d284backed Under | 55c | 818.41$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 44c | 772$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.4 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb57f…0c96backed Under | 52c | 442.31$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef5…e9acbacked Under | 54c | 371.26$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Under | 55c | 300.52$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.55 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Under | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Over | 40c | 240$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1c…8408backed Under | 55c | 224.82$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.17 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +51%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 60c | 180$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Under | 60c | 167$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Under | 56c | 125.84$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc59…35f7backed Under | 61c | 122.95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1226…f998backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…1ddabacked Under | 59c | 89.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 48c | 83.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 46c | 78.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 54c | 78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 57c | 75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b56…23b4backed Over | 37c | 74.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 63c | 68.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3c…9f22backed Under | 61c | 67.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 51c | 60.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x518f…cf91backed Under | 54c | 59.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa7…8332backed Under | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62cd…7b19backed Under | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2175…4b33backed Under | 61c | 48.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Under | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Under | 61c | 35.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4548…e4b5backed Under | 57c | 35.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Over | 40c | 34.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Under | 59c | 27.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 48 | 79.2%38 W · 10 L | +7.8wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Under | 61c | 26.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 60cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…b838backed Under | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe346…3071backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0789…f7adbacked Under | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a2…362bbacked Under | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eac…de53backed Under | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ea…fa08backed Under | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…0cf9backed Under | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aaa…3880backed Under | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22d4…2613backed Under | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x788e…e086backed Under | 55c | 24.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d6…5e9bbacked Under | 61c | 24.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…6fe4backed Under | 61c | 23.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1193…d9c4backed Under | 55c | 20.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9eb…75cebacked Under | 61c | 16.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC 329: Zachary Reese vs. Ryan Gandra (Middleweight, Early Prelims)Ryan Gandra won
- Will Ryan Gandra win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.