TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC 329: Zachary Reese vs. Ryan Gandra (Middleweight, Early Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ryan Gandraof Zachary Reese, Ryan Gandra
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$265,696
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$270,559

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $265,696 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa710…23c4backed Ryan Gandra56c200,000$111,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88,071.8316244.4%72 W · 90 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Zachary Reese44c158,707$69,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69,831.242948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Zachary Reese44c25,655$11,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,288.2529133.7%98 W · 193 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6db5…e279backed Ryan Gandra57c12,551$7,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,430.42564%16 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+48.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Zachary Reese43c9,000$3,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,87011554.8%63 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Zachary Reese44c7,707$3,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,391.244040%16 W · 24 L-5.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-22.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x387f…2095backed Zachary Reese44c6,300$2,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,793425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-35.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Zachary Reese45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,249.9912052.5%63 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Zachary Reese44c4,888$2,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,150.7128849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Ryan Gandra57c4,000$2,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,727.563762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Zachary Reese44c4,000$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,759.9522661.9%140 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Zachary Reese43c3,340$1,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,448.6817050.6%86 W · 84 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Zachary Reese45c3,196$1,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,438.0713836.2%50 W · 88 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Zachary Reese44c2,982$1,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,323.015044%22 W · 28 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Ryan Gandra56c2,290$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.69100%9 W · 0 L+3.5wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+67.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Zachary Reese43c2,180$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.5614551%74 W · 71 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Ryan Gandra55c1,880$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.945152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Ryan Gandra61c1,525$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.5616247.5%77 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Zachary Reese44c1,494$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.6622548%108 W · 117 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Ryan Gandra56c1,400$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61620837%77 W · 131 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd594…98c4backed Ryan Gandra56c1,262$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.138851.1%45 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Ryan Gandra55c1,250$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.513735.8%49 W · 88 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Zachary Reese44c1,159$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.813636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x034b…b22bbacked Zachary Reese44c1,136$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Zachary Reese44c1,106$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.6418032.8%59 W · 121 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Ryan Gandra56c1,051$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.1926140.6%106 W · 155 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Ryan Gandra57c1,009$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.1790553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2849…3d49backed Ryan Gandra56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4409949.5%49 W · 50 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed Ryan Gandra57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43010041%41 W · 59 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda34…01a8backed Zachary Reese43c986.1$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.765540%22 W · 33 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x767a…8ac5backed Ryan Gandra56c879.34$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.9115348.4%74 W · 79 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Zachary Reese44c804.64$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.041338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dae…72c1backed Ryan Gandra56c779.41$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.941353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Ryan Gandra78c717$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.2512451.6%64 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Zachary Reese45c653.93$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.273444.1%15 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x87e6…9c8abacked Ryan Gandra57c584.21$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.211533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Zachary Reese44c568$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9215552.3%81 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99ad…3624backed Ryan Gandra56c535.71$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.71650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10e0…c736backed Ryan Gandra56c535.71$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.71955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+17.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc11…4b4abacked Zachary Reese6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3080%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Ryan Gandra55c499.99$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22536745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf0f…3f10backed Ryan Gandra56c491.07$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.072240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34b8…81afbacked Ryan Gandra57c488.6$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.21050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0aa8…ea63backed Zachary Reese45c470$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.52356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf99…9840backed Zachary Reese45c450$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.56045%27 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Ryan Gandra56c450$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19835664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd19c…fdd0backed Ryan Gandra56c446.43$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.43580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+34%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f71…b2e4backed Ryan Gandra56c446.42$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.426963.8%44 W · 25 L+11.8wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+24%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x21a6…7442backed Zachary Reese45c397.42$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.841758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0ad…683fbacked Ryan Gandra56c383.93$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.9310961.5%67 W · 42 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5108…29cbbacked Ryan Gandra56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.1416158.4%94 W · 67 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Ryan Gandra56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.149548.4%46 W · 49 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a7e…dec0backed Ryan Gandra56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.14683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+40.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Ryan Gandra56c354.21$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.8514551%74 W · 71 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f86…4fa9backed Ryan Gandra57c351.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.6714560%87 W · 58 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Ryan Gandra59c350.58$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.825552.7%29 W · 26 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Zachary Reese43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12956450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Zachary Reese43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12914144.7%63 W · 78 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Ryan Gandra57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12952252.9%276 W · 246 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d86…537abacked Ryan Gandra56c300$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Zachary Reese44c299.98$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9912038.3%46 W · 74 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Ryan Gandra56c291.3$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.177068.6%48 W · 22 L+8.6wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x141a…95a9backed Zachary Reese41c285.27$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.724454.5%24 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Ryan Gandra56c252.48$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.0910270.6%72 W · 30 L+10.5wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+11.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x48d0…6ab2backed Ryan Gandra56c247.12$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.567463.5%47 W · 27 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+20.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7dde…30b1backed Zachary Reese45c240$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081560%9 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa430…c6f9backed Ryan Gandra56c239.29$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.2912755.1%70 W · 57 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3f3…3426backed Zachary Reese45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014132.6%46 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-8.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0506…8c6abacked Zachary Reese45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016746.1%77 W · 90 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1d9…5896backed Zachary Reese45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014237.3%53 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Zachary Reese45c210.38$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.672948.3%14 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbffe…6492backed Zachary Reese41c209.82$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.035547.3%26 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed Zachary Reese45c205.65$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.545459.3%32 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Ryan Gandra56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887843.6%34 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Ryan Gandra56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid+22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Zachary Reese43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe88…f1eabacked Ryan Gandra56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x538e…77f5backed Ryan Gandra59c199.99$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829364.5%60 W · 33 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe523…f087backed Ryan Gandra55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8219152.9%101 W · 90 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+20.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0188…afc3backed Zachary Reese45c180$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick49cpaid-75.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8959…68e2backed Ryan Gandra56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.576142.6%26 W · 35 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a68…98aebacked Ryan Gandra56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5726569.4%184 W · 81 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed Ryan Gandra56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5718647.3%88 W · 98 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00d2…fe64backed Zachary Reese46c176$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.962867.9%19 W · 9 L+5.9wins+0.21per pick47cpaid+42.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x81a9…df08backed Ryan Gandra57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.441457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd738…eeeebacked Ryan Gandra56c170.73$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.1213248.5%64 W · 68 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc76e…acb0backed Ryan Gandra57c164.6$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.78757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick70cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Ryan Gandra56c160$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.48638.4%33 W · 53 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked Zachary Reese44c160$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.41947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Zachary Reese43c157.79$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.856747.8%32 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc39a…69b1backed Ryan Gandra57c153.67$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.79683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick60cpaid+39.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd960…1d82backed Zachary Reese40c150$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.435259.6%31 W · 21 L-0.2wins0.00per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Zachary Reese44c137.29$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.773745.9%17 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6986…3369backed Zachary Reese45c134.89$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1b9…c40bbacked Zachary Reese45c132$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.450%0 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x042d…0b81backed Ryan Gandra57c131.58$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.588158%47 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8688…a520backed Ryan Gandra56c125$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559944.4%44 W · 55 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b4…9332backed Ryan Gandra56c120.16$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.872045%9 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Zachary Reese44c120$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.87850%39 W · 39 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58be…f972backed Zachary Reese45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.