MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3c2921023656935fb310338fc7859897a92f2b7a6b1927c0c3624d8864708d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 46c | 3,138$1,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,455.12 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 41c | 2,897$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.54 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 2,653$1,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.09 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 37c | 1,929$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.46 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 59c | 984.43$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.32 | 356 | 58.1%207 W · 149 L | +26.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 34c | 735$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.1 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 34c | 572$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.52 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 78c | 545$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.95 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 34c | 525$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.5 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 51c | 460.01$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.99 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 34c | 265.85$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.84 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 69c | 252.31$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.22 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 225.22$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.86 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 32c | 219.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.39 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Over | 72c | 212.12$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 32c | 196.08$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.34 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 68c | 187.39$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.96 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 68c | 185.86$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.57 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038c…36cfbacked Over | 77c | 155.84$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed Under | 67c | 148.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 36c | 120.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.37 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…dd3cbacked Under | 68c | 120.25$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.77 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 24c | 92.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 278 | 46.8%130 W · 148 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 34c | 79.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 163 | 53.4%87 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 32c | 72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 226 | 52.2%118 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 34c | 64.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 36c | 63.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 71c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 483 | 43.3%209 W · 274 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 26c | 58.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Over | 72c | 57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 34c | 47.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x003f…3805backed Over | 40c | 37.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 390 | 49%191 W · 199 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed Under | 68c | 21.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 67c | 20.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles AngelsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 13.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 15.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles AngelsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.