MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc10c8cfb4e03362cd5773459fe2c2ca4f4e3ad175e6bcf1bdaf090695ebce2d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under | 62c | 4,229$2,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,616.69 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 39c | 1,772$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.1 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…7f85backed Under | 64c | 1,563$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 59c | 1,528$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.44 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 1,287$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.57 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 38c | 1,281$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.97 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 38c | 1,258$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.08 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 50c | 1,240$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 54c | 1,059$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 36c | 584.3$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.14 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 39c | 393$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.49 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 49c | 388$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.96 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 31c | 377.35$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.64 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaeb…9ec2backed Under | 71c | 361.32$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.5 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -8.9wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 50c | 269.95$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.94 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…3447backed Over | 33c | 247.15$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.59 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 183.85$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.25 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 39c | 152.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.32 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb091…2017backed Over | 79c | 150.09$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 312 | 54.5%170 W · 142 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 61c | 146.77$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.53 | 172 | 45.9%79 W · 93 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 42c | 130.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 40c | 130.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.58 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 62c | 114.8$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.18 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 62c | 84.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 38c | 72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 50c | 61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 56c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 59c | 43.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 59c | 39.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed Over | 38c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 58c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Over | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 39c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 50c | 31.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles AngelsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 13.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 15.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles AngelsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.