Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3ca2a17b125d2e0e29d1c50d02e20767b966bb3b61034c123b3c86c9d979f47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 1,391$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 44c | 328.67$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.84 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 7c | 317.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbad9…2647backed Yes | 14c | 257.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 251$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 6c | 227.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 11c | 207.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 77c | 199.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…f2fbbacked Yes | 16c | 199.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 199$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 6c | 172.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 170.73$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 146.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 11c | 144.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 78c | 134.53$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 10c | 120.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 110.01$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 11c | 105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 14c | 102.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 14c | 87.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 79c | 25.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 78c | 23.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b6…caadbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 79c | 14.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.