Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76bc1a13a6dc6b34c1078c8a0046a31be6f479c08688e2b6256101e7c588fcd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 5c | 305.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 28c | 272.71$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.37 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 30c | 251.55$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 15c | 242.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 240.08$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 218.39$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.53 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 214$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 214$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.83 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 29c | 171.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 170.74$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 166.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 18c | 133.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 28c | 130.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 35c | 129.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 71c | 129.58$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 120.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 63c | 98.1$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 30c | 85.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe61b…b4adbacked Yes | 28c | 85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 71c | 66.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 68c | 65.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 24c | 65.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed Yes | 26c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 32c | 62.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 58.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 50.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 71c | 50.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x779c…699ebacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 63c | 49.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b5…f2acbacked Yes | 28c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 71c | 41.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 40.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 70c | 37.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 33c | 36.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 66c | 35.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 66c | 29.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 68c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d8…ec63backed No | 65c | 21.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 71c | 15.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 15.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.