Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c5384ed41e099a54ae4f46885b270ef2ee0562ce2704c9e9f2ed8f282741f3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 18c | 2,210$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.21 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 25c | 991.55$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.63 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 20c | 746.25$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.47 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 492.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 74c | 299.9$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.97 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 18c | 278.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 77c | 259.6$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 25c | 245.54$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 230.32$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 220$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 218.89$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 210.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 74c | 204.13$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 29c | 178.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 78c | 135.31$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 15c | 134.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 77c | 124.01$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 109.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 71c | 107.39$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked Yes | 22c | 106$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 11c | 102.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed Yes | 27c | 100.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 26c | 97.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eee…18a2backed Yes | 33c | 89.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 71c | 76.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 75.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 61.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 53.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 50.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 24c | 49.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 33.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 30.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 74c | 29.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…bf77backed No | 78c | 24.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 69c | 23.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 78c | 22.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 78c | 13.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.