TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,744
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,551

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,744 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdadb…1870backed Yes26c1,283$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.5858922.8%134 W · 455 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes70c1,045$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.552,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes27c723.79$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.891,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No20c559$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.96,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No31c541.08$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.12,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcad1…7cf9backed Yes65c410.42$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.843246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes30c377.72$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.718,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No74c350$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25977555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes33c326.97$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.84,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x116d…fbf1backed Yes72c324.04$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.8117859%105 W · 73 L+20.1wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+26.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No73c319$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.872,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No26c304$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.864,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No49c289.78$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.414,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No23c256.07$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.581,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No73c255.32$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.262,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes33c236.16$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.923,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No69c220$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.385,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No65c218.37$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.644,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No17c207.6$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.452,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No33c204.13$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.091,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No71c186.29$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1334,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No68c173.48$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.465,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No22c170.39$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3853855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2155…3428backed No61c164.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018845.2%85 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No70c163.65$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.419,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes41c153.71$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.681,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes52c151.97$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.43,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No30c150.56$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.091,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No29c139.97$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.081,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes31c126.2$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.784,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No74c111$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1455954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No69c105.49$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.333,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No34c102.54$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No33c101.5$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.480957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes75c101.01$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.251,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes31c98.09$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.7794552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes31c98.07$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.073,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No72c85.72$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7297152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No69c85.62$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.24,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe61b…b4adbacked Yes30c83.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.331833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No70c83$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.243,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf01d…bb31backed No55c79.33$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6316272.2%117 W · 45 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb02e…90a5backed No19c78.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.87837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-50.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes30c69.09$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0987437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda56…4176backed Yes67c68.76$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6912934.1%44 W · 85 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No72c64.27$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.222,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No73c60$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.81,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No70c56.68$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6875546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf75f…b458backed Yes46c54.88$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.374452.3%23 W · 21 L+6.1wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+12.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes62c51.03$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.161,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No72c50.84$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.733,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No28c50.03$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0128163.7%179 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes34c49.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9985049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No71c49.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.542,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc66c…7c32backed Yes74c49$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.744070%28 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bf3…b84abacked No25c45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-72.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda62…04c8backed No69c42.39$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.25633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-47.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes32c42.25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.732,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes34c42$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7258358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes34c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.486949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed No60c39.53$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7553258.6%312 W · 220 L+45.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes30c36.32$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3254335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No73c35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.42,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf576…a786backed No74c34.87$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6837669.4%261 W · 115 L+1.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No71c33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.35,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No67c32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.444,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce98…fbb1backed Yes75c30.77$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.69666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No75c30.71$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.032,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6eee…18a2backed Yes70c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes52c29.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.226,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc053…6041backed No69c28.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.651060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No71c28.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1694066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes75c26.73$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7382268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes66c25.09$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd84…0fe5backed No72c24.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1851568%350 W · 165 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes73c24.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7552446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No72c20.19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.491,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x997a…4cbebacked No73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.619565.6%128 W · 67 L-0.8wins0.00per pick66cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed No69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.823958.2%139 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x846b…63b6backed Yes65c18.47$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.475343.4%23 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No69c17.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7928360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed No70c16.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8827056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.