Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf410b2ea1c22097afe046c98106aa10a3cb6dfdc1e538027f9a55f747fecce2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 21c | 1,332$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.19 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 5c | 760.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 26c | 519.04$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.17 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 74c | 457.35$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.94 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 8c | 405.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 388.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb32f…f7f5backed Yes | 17c | 277.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 233.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 213.31$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 11c | 206.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 12c | 202.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 76c | 200$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 7c | 199.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 17c | 198.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 7c | 184.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 12c | 177.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 24c | 169.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 22c | 154.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 8c | 154.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…28d4backed Yes | 28c | 154.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 26c | 126.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0984…5933backed Yes | 8c | 122.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 19c | 118.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 76c | 117.91$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 21c | 116.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 20c | 112.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 25c | 107.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 24c | 103.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 79c | 101.32$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aef…26f6backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 22c | 99.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 22c | 94.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbe…84d1backed Yes | 29c | 92.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 15c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 18c | 85.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 20c | 84.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 23c | 74.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 76c | 73.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 62.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 20c | 60.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 58.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 53.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3797…efeabacked Yes | 26c | 49.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c70…f74dbacked Yes | 24c | 49.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 44.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 29c | 37.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 31c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 74c | 35.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 32.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 74c | 32.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 80c | 32.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 80c | 32.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 80c | 32.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…3cc3backed No | 75c | 31.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 27.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 75c | 26.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 77c | 26.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2840…ae07backed No | 75c | 20.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…3c18backed No | 75c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f0…b245backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…6294backed No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 74c | 14.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 80c | 14.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…8f82backed No | 80c | 13.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.76 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…0d83backed No | 74c | 13.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 12.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.58 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C or higher on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.