Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e317669085f45838abb71c4b4219f591bbd944eb712f0f81dcfb0af3c666a57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 26c | 941.79$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.43 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 16c | 839.75$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.46 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 19c | 810.23$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.77 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 381.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 12c | 374.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 348.1$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 20c | 328.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 16c | 324$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 302.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 75c | 296.08$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.59 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…1fafbacked Yes | 13c | 234.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 17c | 234$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 16c | 211.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 19c | 209.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 73c | 174.67$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 28c | 166.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 160.19$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 148.15$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 20c | 142.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 17c | 138.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 73c | 135.97$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1906…c647backed No | 79c | 127.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 29c | 121.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 27c | 109.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 27c | 101.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 74c | 100.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 12c | 100.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 19c | 99.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 20c | 94.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 27c | 93.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 29c | 88.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 87.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 79.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 73c | 79.28$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 21c | 71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 27c | 69.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 16c | 62.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 62.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 22c | 61.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 21c | 61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…267dbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…89e6backed No | 76c | 54.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 54.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 51.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3797…efeabacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 44.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 79c | 40.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 28c | 36.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 35.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed No | 72c | 27.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 74c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8694…7dafbacked No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 26.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 80c | 24.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6991…6ad6backed No | 72c | 24.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 76cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 69c | 21.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…18adbacked No | 76c | 17.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C or higher on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.