Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12c4b23df43414f58192cb6635bf3530a6e431077f57dc09f013a50686582d2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 2c | 1,758$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 54c | 716.14$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.69 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 41c | 515.19$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.09 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 43c | 300$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.75 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 22c | 224.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 46c | 218.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.76 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 216.22$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.25 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 59c | 215.59$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0d06backed No | 57c | 209.17$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.18 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 207.2$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 35c | 200.87$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…28d4backed Yes | 68c | 199.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 61c | 196.02$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.55 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 59c | 185$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.15 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 44c | 182.04$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.04 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 31c | 178$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 171.44$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.83 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 18c | 164.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 160.37$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.72 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 40c | 147$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.95 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 56c | 146.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.87 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb425…ed54backed Yes | 78c | 146$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 144.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 24c | 124.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 121$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.15 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 62c | 119.86$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 37c | 118.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 44c | 113.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.79 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 42c | 103$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1362…2081backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…d6d0backed Yes | 50c | 99.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 45c | 97.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 59c | 94.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 21c | 92.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 65c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 56c | 89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 57c | 83.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 53c | 77.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 75.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 50c | 73.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 36c | 73.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa753…2861backed Yes | 57c | 69.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 61c | 69.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 27c | 66.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 62.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c70…f74dbacked Yes | 37c | 62.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 57.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3e…1fbbbacked Yes | 66c | 57.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 53.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 55c | 52.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 61c | 51.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe12c…def5backed No | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 56c | 49.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6833…2011backed Yes | 44c | 45.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 60c | 40.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 55c | 40.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 61c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 48c | 38.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 38c | 38.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6a…4c9bbacked Yes | 53c | 38.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 38c | 35.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 58c | 34.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 47c | 33.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 60c | 33.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 31.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…f54abacked Yes | 70c | 30.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd526…3d7cbacked No | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 39c | 27.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 62c | 26.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 38c | 26.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…dc18backed Yes | 43c | 26.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…a730backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 63c | 24.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed No | 50c | 23.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 61c | 22.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 58c | 22.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 58c | 20.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed Yes | 56c | 20.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -6.7wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -57%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 60c | 20.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x903b…fdf1backed Yes | 72c | 20.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…c3a6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b9…9772backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 61c | 18.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 63c | 17.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C or higher on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.