Serie A · resolved market
SSC Napoli vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4151b63b312625fd9825f08f2ea3a912a00da9f07003d5613cf1488a95ee70b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 4,136$2,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,811.25 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Over | 45c | 3,030$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363.42 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf24b…d4cebacked Under | 42c | 1,093$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.03 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 70c | 808.36$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.84 | 498 | 50.6%252 W · 246 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 30c | 696.6$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.86 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 56c | 669.84$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.11 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed07…886abacked Under | 76c | 506.46$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.55 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 24c | 475.77$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 64c | 430$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.68 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 24c | 428.13$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 41c | 292$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.38 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 69c | 254.18$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.74 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 54c | 249.48$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.03 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 54c | 217.35$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.37 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 124 | 22.6%28 W · 96 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Over | 56c | 178.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 49c | 157.32$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.16 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 40c | 155.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.07 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 75c | 133$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x678e…63febacked Over | 47c | 121.19$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +14.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Under | 63c | 115$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +6.2wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 57c | 109.72$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 58.7%105 W · 74 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 142 | 31%44 W · 98 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…a948backed Over | 56c | 91.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…688abacked Over | 47c | 85.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 67c | 83.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 180 | 55%99 W · 81 L | +15.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +12.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf034…d5a8backed Under | 48c | 81.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 77c | 77.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 41c | 72.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x079e…fef9backed Over | 61c | 67.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…7170backed Under | 48c | 62.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 50c | 61.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Over | 30c | 61.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d9…f193backed Over | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…9032backed Over | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 32c | 46.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 319 | 58.3%186 W · 133 L | +26.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 28c | 43.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…ffd7backed Under | 70c | 37.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…a9bcbacked Over | 68c | 36.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…dbb5backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Over | 31c | 33.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -14.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d8…fac4backed Over | 59c | 27.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…c817backed Under | 76c | 21.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…0a40backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 79c | 15.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…150dbacked Under | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31c…9555backed Under | 78c | 12.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SSC Napoli vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5this page
- SSC Napoli vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SSC Napoli vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5Over won
- SSC Napoli vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5Over won
- SSC Napoli vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.