Serie A · resolved market
SSC Napoli vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe75fa569f506d0eafe58c7031a9570d574f90baddf0dde8080e5b3b8dd7a967f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 18c | 3,721$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.44 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 29c | 1,500$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.99 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0801…35cbbacked Over | 79c | 1,363$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.23 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 71c | 816$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.64 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 2c | 809.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 29c | 647.06$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.45 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08be…8191backed Over | 71c | 403.76$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a5…b620backed Over | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…c3d0backed Over | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Under | 29c | 347$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.63 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 79c | 316.46$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 112 | 68.8%77 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…bee0backed Over | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…a9bcbacked Over | 78c | 257.45$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Over | 71c | 167.84$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 29c | 165.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d8…e7d2backed Over | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Over | 71c | 141.35$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 133 | 66.2%88 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 79c | 139.34$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 28c | 117.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 405 | 49.6%201 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a31…67b7backed Over | 71c | 112.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d20…1f58backed Over | 71c | 99.03$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee8f…9f44backed Under | 32c | 92.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6c…fe22backed Over | 71c | 91$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Under | 14c | 83.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +6.2wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 29c | 71.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf8…00d1backed Over | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Under | 30c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa46…2b1abacked Over | 71c | 47.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 30c | 37.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f6…fcd2backed Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 68c | 22.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Over | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 127 | 44.1%56 W · 71 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SSC Napoli vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5this page
- SSC Napoli vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SSC Napoli vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5Over won
- SSC Napoli vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5Under won
- SSC Napoli vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.