MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf41a67721be8947adc604be918ffb7a4a69a530bb440dc9e933e623688305582
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf40…1bd2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 29c | 12,282$3,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,502.21 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 6,077$2,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,442.67 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0317…6289backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 4,656$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,915.88 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 3,841$2,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,151.1 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 3,259$1,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,792.47 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…def3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 2,556$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,431.19 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 2,288$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.13 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 1,510$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.63 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 1,280$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 1,104$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.23 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 1,039$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.43 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 69c | 800$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.93 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 738.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.56 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 590.91$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 290.54$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.89 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 285.08$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.79 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 263.09$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.1 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 174.74$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.36 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 125$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a56…695bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 98.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.94 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac7…3a34backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 90.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e2…17a9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 74.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ca…51fbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 71.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 70.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c53…8052backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 67.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7039…abfcbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 67.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebeb…74d4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +51%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2973…3547backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 45cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 64.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 59.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be9…33a2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83e5…6d2dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7484…a41bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 47.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe94e…0d41backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…5391backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 46.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8540…ee5dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 45.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b98…0ca6backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 37.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf26e…3f9dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 33.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4316…7a37backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5657…78aebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 71c | 14.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.