NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4c50ccdaa63627102535b2201f7d11e5f1049b1cc34d55e98f72ea21177c369
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Rockets, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb62…abbdbacked Rockets | 41c | 6,500$2,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,835 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf32…e0e7backed Warriors | 59c | 6,500$3,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,835 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 59c | 2,160$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.44 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2900…af64backed Rockets | 41c | 1,410$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.9 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x902e…5f41backed Rockets | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors | 59c | 467.24$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.87 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rockets | 40c | 366.56$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.49 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Rockets | 43c | 147.71$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.84 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Rockets | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Rockets | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Rockets | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Warriors | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Rockets | 42c | 94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x778d…8779backed Warriors | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Warriors | 58c | 79.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Warriors | 58c | 65.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Rockets | 42c | 65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…2332backed Rockets | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73da…8c9bbacked Warriors | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…246cbacked Warriors | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…1d6abacked Warriors | 59c | 34.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eca…6882backed Rockets | 39c | 33.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 159 | 36.5%58 W · 101 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Warriors | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Rockets | 39c | 27.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Warriors | 61c | 27.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87b4…23c0backed Rockets | 42c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42a…bf40backed Warriors | 59c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Warriors | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-1.5)this page
- Rockets vs. WarriorsRockets won
- Rockets vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Rockets vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.