MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5dcd831782f9f14e19df535bf72e5889f4269066aac0d132ed44498dec3e723
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Minnesota Twins, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 33c | 7,640$2,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,103.72 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 5,824$3,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,876.3 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 2,993$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,828.81 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 2,827$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 1,238$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.02 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Minnesota Twins | 35c | 1,024$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.56 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 647.18$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.67 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Minnesota Twins | 34c | 618.18$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 586.87$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.59 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 505.71$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.49 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 505$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.85 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 376$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.16 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 342.97$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.93 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Minnesota Twins | 33c | 207.1$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.18 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 204.61$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.3 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Minnesota Twins | 34c | 187.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.14 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 179.36$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.38 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 163.49$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.27 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 36c | 162.37$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.94 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 155.89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.17 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cleveland Guardians | 29c | 153$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 149.32$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Minnesota Twins | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 76c | 136.53$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.15 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 124.28$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Minnesota Twins | 64c | 111.84$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 102.29$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 101$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Cleveland Guardians | 16c | 99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Minnesota Twins | 50c | 99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 98.86$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 396 | 53.5%212 W · 184 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 82.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 74.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Minnesota Twins | 35c | 67.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 66.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Minnesota Twins | 27c | 62.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 57.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 51.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Minnesota Twins | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Minnesota Twins | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 44.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9168…3c63backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 40.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Minnesota Twins | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 39.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 34.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 32.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 32.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Minnesota Twins | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 31.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Minnesota Twins | 49c | 30.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Minnesota Twins | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 29.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 26.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Minnesota Twins | 64c | 25.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 313 | 54.6%171 W · 142 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…2ffbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 21.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 267 | 51.7%138 W · 129 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 16.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.