NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5dd411254164b8dab52e9670b2421bb590e1dee9c1d6f0571dc59dcbef8e05d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9762…73fbbacked Over | 78c | 1,301$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.6 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 22c | 1,083$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.26 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 70c | 348$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.84 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 65c | 318$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.17 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Under | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.24 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 78c | 300$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.88 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 60c | 296.46$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.2 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 53c | 280$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.86 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Under | 23c | 217.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…84ecbacked Under | 25c | 211.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf500…958dbacked Over | 79c | 189.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 28c | 159.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Over | 70c | 149.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 75 | 80%60 W · 15 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed Under | 58c | 146.25$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.75 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 21c | 127.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 75c | 109.62$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 236 | 65.7%155 W · 81 L | +15.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 16c | 92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -6.0wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 31c | 78.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Over | 76c | 70.11$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc059…a1edbacked Over | 76c | 56.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 25c | 51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7349backed Over | 65c | 46.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b6…c975backed Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 53c | 38.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a5d5backed Under | 29c | 37.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 57c | 35.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 38c | 33.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5this page
- Canadiens vs. HurricanesHurricanes won
- Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.