Olympics · resolved market
Will Jens Van’t Wout (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating ST - Men's 500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf63c4a6dec2c3f2b6772cce9aadda1dedb1b343e9a79e8c6ab99e3218eca3d4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes | 29c | 224.14$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb78…e7c8backed Yes | 47c | 213.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked No | 53c | 159.91$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.16 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 58c | 159.86$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.14 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf94b…94a7backed No | 64c | 155.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.31 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 52c | 108.85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6325…cfaabacked No | 49c | 108.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 57cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcff8…3634backed Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 65c | 94.02$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 55cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…4dd4backed Yes | 65c | 90$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 35c | 63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa224…8c93backed Yes | 41c | 60.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bc…a87fbacked No | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…bf52backed Yes | 42c | 47.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d3…eb28backed Yes | 49c | 42.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…8206backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +103%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30cf…16e7backed No | 45c | 33.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked No | 51c | 32.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 36c | 28.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…2489backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f6…ac81backed Yes | 61c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9601…bd5dbacked No | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jens Van’t Wout (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating ST - Men's 500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Denis Nikisha (KAZ) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating ST - Men's 500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Steven Dubois (CAN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating ST - Men's 500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Teun Boer (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating ST - Men's 500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will William Dandjinou (CAN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating ST - Men's 500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.