NHL · resolved market
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf64c965eaf8df4c86c6a68890775d9bec89883d6cc92819bcc43c6ed1345fc17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Senatorsof Golden Knights, Senators
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Golden Knights | 36c | 6,767$2,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,444.1 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Senators | 63c | 4,453$2,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,642.56 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Golden Knights | 37c | 4,057$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Senators | 64c | 2,561$1,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.96 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Senators | 64c | 1,503$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.98 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Senators | 63c | 1,160$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.32 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…0fa8backed Golden Knights | 2c | 946.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Senators | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Senators | 67c | 496$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.18 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Senators | 63c | 420.65$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.78 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Golden Knights | 37c | 400$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Senators | 63c | 388.92$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Golden Knights | 36c | 375$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.71 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Senators | 68c | 352.94$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.94 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Golden Knights | 33c | 329.55$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.44 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…b325backed Senators | 67c | 308$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Golden Knights | 32c | 290.01$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Golden Knights | 34c | 178.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Golden Knights | 29c | 174.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Senators | 64c | 153.13$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Golden Knights | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x877a…7de2backed Golden Knights | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Senators | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Golden Knights | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Golden Knights | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Senators | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Senators | 66c | 82.83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Golden Knights | 34c | 81.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Senators | 66c | 77.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Senators | 68c | 75.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Golden Knights | 35c | 63.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Senators | 64c | 63.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Golden Knights | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Golden Knights | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Golden Knights | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Senators | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Senators | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e77…4fd2backed Golden Knights | 36c | 45.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…5d3dbacked Golden Knights | 36c | 45.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Senators | 79c | 39.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Senators | 64c | 31.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Senators | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Senators | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Senators | 65c | 28.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Senators | 77c | 23.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Senators | 65c | 22.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Senators | 63c | 22.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 162 | 54.9%89 W · 73 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c54…da2cbacked Senators | 66c | 18.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed Senators | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Senators | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)this page
- Golden Knights vs. SenatorsSenators won
- Golden Knights vs. Senators: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.