NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Senators: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5c51bb818c662efc2c284104e13898fe7fefd80cf491b910addd7ac234ed435
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Over | 51c | 6,767$3,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,315.83 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 6,001$2,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,921.12 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 51c | 4,471$2,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,280 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Over | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 51c | 1,840$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.42 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Under | 52c | 1,811$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.13 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa316…8dc0backed Over | 57c | 1,709$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 50c | 1,488$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.12 | 437 | 43%188 W · 249 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Over | 49c | 1,126$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.03 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 49c | 1,071$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.79 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 50c | 1,005$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.41 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Under | 51c | 947.88$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.42 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad8…c5c3backed Over | 49c | 775$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.25 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f78…c245backed Under | 52c | 758$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 622.82$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.12 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Over | 55c | 594.97$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.74 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked Over | 62c | 590$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.9 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb48…6ad1backed Under | 71c | 507.13$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 29c | 465.6$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.98 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 50c | 444$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 181 | 36.5%66 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 60c | 396.34$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.8 | 221 | 50.2%111 W · 110 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 49c | 383.31$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.41 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Over | 55c | 362$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 50c | 347$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.5 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 47c | 294$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.82 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5760…ec95backed Under | 51c | 188.24$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 50c | 179$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 50c | 176$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 47c | 168.89$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 36c | 168.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Over | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 129.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 52c | 126.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 46c | 112.65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 60c | 100.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.47 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 388 | 57.2%222 W · 166 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 49c | 88.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Under | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a42…34d8backed Under | 54c | 76.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 46c | 75.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 61c | 74.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 45c | 73.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 49c | 70.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4c…77bdbacked Over | 49c | 69.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 77c | 63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Under | 57c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 119 | 54.6%65 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 49c | 57.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7980…feadbacked Over | 51c | 51.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 70c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…7c42backed Over | 46c | 45.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Over | 48c | 41.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81dc…45a1backed Under | 56c | 39.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3518…c4aebacked Over | 50c | 37.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 51c | 33.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 51c | 33.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 151 | 57.6%87 W · 64 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d19…e2fdbacked Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Over | 41c | 28.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +35%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…2964backed Under | 53c | 26.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4892…27bcbacked Over | 51c | 25.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe139…84b4backed Under | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Senators: O/U 6.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. SenatorsSenators won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Senators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.