Mls · resolved market
Will CF Montréal vs. New York Red Bulls end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf65638b847549479c6ae56b5fee2ac4fd09460e5ace4e5eb8e7ea8d7ca5002dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed No | 77c | 2,169$1,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.06 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcddb…0d22backed No | 73c | 1,994$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 27c | 1,318$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.76 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 16c | 1,164$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.52 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 27c | 1,100$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 5c | 1,022$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 11c | 856.46$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.53 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Yes | 27c | 740.7$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 2c | 513.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 26c | 394.16$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.48 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 7c | 338.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 286.07$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.24 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 26c | 189.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 21c | 186$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc494…543cbacked Yes | 19c | 177.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 77c | 156.4$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfc…5c8ebacked Yes | 27c | 145.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 74c | 143$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 26c | 121.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 73c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 25c | 74.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 72c | 61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 73c | 54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 73c | 44.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 75c | 28.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked No | 73c | 22.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6444…672ebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 74c | 17.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff66…39cfbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 65cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Montréal vs. New York Red Bulls end in a draw?this page
- Will CF Montréal win on 2026-04-18?Yes won
- Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-04-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.